Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 19.320392 21.005495 22.866268 25.092716 27.710622 30.725372 34.511709
2024-10-13 16.785520 19.005046 21.639115 25.065274 29.516538 35.282024 43.653559
2024-10-20 14.879037 17.319199 20.365133 24.580020 30.506614 38.999611 53.168561
2024-10-27 14.031729 16.754720 20.319297 25.562649 33.571985 46.442648 72.066180
2024-11-03 12.985558 15.772234 19.540338 25.328327 34.733731 51.307352 90.061727
2024-11-10 12.224328 15.069590 19.028532 25.354084 36.255482 57.351189 116.714612
2024-11-17 11.632391 14.529575 18.665527 25.518621 38.016179 64.647016 158.074740
2024-11-24 11.119536 14.047166 18.321091 25.636819 39.697994 72.676318 222.893166
2024-12-01 10.603276 13.513377 17.836906 25.432966 40.683642 79.618150 314.558593
2024-12-08 10.200165 13.112794 17.516150 25.459361 42.150644 88.985037 511.106066
2024-12-15 9.788085 12.668530 17.083374 25.217450 42.964656 97.071762 891.211894
2024-12-22 9.424274 12.273336 16.695498 25.005397 43.801135 106.150915 2109.027215
2024-12-29 9.083585 11.900375 16.326236 24.806043 44.696001 116.935152 24409.352911
2025-01-05 8.785839 11.577662 16.017443 24.690412 45.805831 130.515337 NaN
2025-01-12 8.446529 11.172045 15.539972 24.180527 45.743253 138.526492 NaN
2025-01-19 8.366894 11.171109 15.754135 25.119223 50.080804 182.070469 NaN
2025-01-26 8.113278 10.877480 15.434655 24.884588 50.860696 203.895555 NaN
2025-02-02 7.915593 10.664410 15.243244 24.906534 52.493576 240.467267 NaN
2025-02-09 7.750508 10.496067 15.119932 25.064868 54.671832 296.551265 NaN
2025-02-16 7.590146 10.327579 14.984513 25.178967 56.774919 372.076162 NaN
2025-02-23 7.399791 10.100951 14.727937 24.980953 57.675446 441.104872 NaN
2025-03-02 7.248833 9.933800 14.572083 25.006457 59.501563 572.043849 NaN
2025-03-09 7.075243 9.721728 14.319882 24.771688 60.209957 699.712581 NaN